Europe : From a technological point of view, a compelling video and audio experience over wireless networks and devices has arrived.

IDC anticipates that by 2009, over 30 million U.S. wireless subscribers will be consuming commercial video/TV content and services over their wireless devices.

A new study from IDC focuses on commercial video and television content and services for wireless devices, including commercially created video clips, short-format movies, and live streaming television broadcasts. For commercial video and TV to be adopted, subscribers first need cell phones and related handsets that support it and discovery of the available video content and services. Digital rights management (DRM) and ease of use of media player applications will also be key considerations. IDC survey research shows growing interest in this market, especially among youths and young adults.

"Although there are substantial challenges facing the commercial video and television marketplace from a network, handset, and content perspective, which will serve to keep penetration levels relatively low, IDC anticipates that annual revenue will still top the $3 billion mark by 2009," said Lewis Ward ( inset ), senior research analyst in IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications program. "With an ARPU approaching $10 per subscriber per month by that point, commercial video and television may well emerge as the single largest cell phone-oriented ARPU driver among consumers outside of voice."

Until mid-2006, mobile video and TV content is likely to be delivered solely over existing 2.5G and 3G carrier unicast cellular networks. However, broadcast/multicast networks from Crown Castle Mobile Media and MediaFLO USA should emerge in the latter half of next year, which will change the competitive dynamics in the marketplace. While wireless video/TV over cellular-enabled devices is showing promise with early signs of growth, IDC finds that network services must be designed to better streamline the activation and on-going use of video/TV content and live TV. A hybrid delivery model that supports live TV and video content as well as on-demand clips is likely to be the most effective long term approach.

The total number of minutes of commercial video content consumed - this includes transaction-based a la carte content purchases, 2.5G and 3G subscriptions, as well as emerging broadcast/multicast subscriptions - will more than double annually between 2004 and 2009. IDC anticipates the total volume of minutes consumed will rise into the tens of billions by the end of the forecast period. However, 2.5G and 3G unicast subscriptions will remain the bedrock of usage and revenues.

IDC's recent study, U.S. Wireless Commercial Video and Television 2005-2009 Forecast and Analysis: Rise of the Third Screen (IDC #33044) examines the exciting opportunities in the emerging arena of wireless data services and applications, in particular, commercial video and television.