The
total worldwide count of Analog, CDMA, TDMA, GSM, PDC, PHS and UMTS
base stations will grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of a
mere 13.7% through 2006, according to In-Stat/MDR. The high-tech market
research firm finds that, during this same period, UMTS will lead the
growth with 110% with CDMA and GSM expected to come in at a not so very
close second and third. All other air links will experience either flat
or negative growth.
According to Ray Jodoin, Director of In-Stat/MDR's Wireless
Research Group, "Over the next 18 months, there might be
significant short-term delays due to equipment shortages
and problems, as well as a significant lack of funding. In
addition, a considerable infrastructure manufacturer
retrenchment will also occur, and could lead to additional
delays because of the necessity to renegotiate contracts."
In-Stat/MDR also reports that, one year from now, a minimum
of two infrastructure manufacturers, in each major market,
will no longer be in business and that significant carrier
consolidation will also occur during this period. "While
the forecast indicates year-to-year growth, 2002 and 2003
should be viewed as extremely volatile," says Jodoin. "If
the carrier CAPEX continues to slip, 2002 and 2003 new base
station deployments will be down considerably from initial
forecasts."
In-Stat/MDR has also found that:
- In 2006, there will be only two major
air links
deployed on a worldwide basis; CDMA at 20.8% Share of
Market (SOM), and GSM at 69.2% SOM. UMTS will have
only a 4% SOM at that time.
- GSM will dominate with almost 94%
of deployed European
base stations in 2006. However, previous rapid growth
is beginning to ebb as subscriber growth diminishes.
- Base station deployments in the US
will experience a
dramatic decline in 2003 as a result of not only the
new order downturn that occurred in 2002, but also an
anticipated delay in the changeover from TDMA to GSM.
While activity will occur throughout 2003, systems
will not be operational until early 2004.
- Unlike North America, Latin America
is expected to
continue to depend heavily upon analog and TDMA
through 2006. Unless there is a radical transitioning
of TDMA to GSM-850, CDMA will be the primary air link
at the end of the forecast period in Latin America.
- While PDC will still dominate the
Japanese landscape
in 2006, NTT DoCoMo and J-Phone will be making rapid
market advances with UMTS. Based on current plans, all
CDMA deployments will be upgraded to at least 1x, and
many may also be transitioned into 1xEV-DO in order to
offer direct competition with UMTS data speeds.
The report, "Down, Down, Down We
Go. 2002 Base Station
Forecast" (#IN020338GW), provides a five-year forecast of
total deployment, new deployment, and revenue for BTSs,
BSCs, MSCs, and Micro BTSs for CDMA, TDMA, GSM, PDC, PHS,
and analog infrastructure. UMTS node Bs, SSGNs, and GGSns
are included for the first time.
