Mobile Growth Rate Slowing Markedly

7th May , 2004

Europe : While high mobile growth rate has been maintained globally until the present time, it is now slowing quite markedly. During 2004 it will stay below 15%. Most of the present growth is in developing countries, with China's growth alone is expected to continue at around 15%. Africa is set to remain the key growth market for most of 2004, with an expected growth percentage above 30%. Developed regions such as the USA and Europe are showing distinct signs of market saturation, with growth figures dropping below 7%.

Although many countries still see high growth in mobile subscribers, they also see their overall revenue flattening because of the drop in call charges resulting from increased competition, and the fact that new subscribers are in general low-usage customers. Since 2002, the low priced countries have seen a levelling out of the mobile charges as they approach fixed call charges. Mobile voice services however, will come under renewed price pressure once VoIP starts to become more widespread. Developments in the USA will be of particular interest in this respect.

To maintain the high growth of the mobile market, and overcome falling profitability, wireless carriers are now offering services that were previously the domain of the fixed operators, the so-called fixed-mobile substitution, and the fixed operators have had to respond. In this battle for subscribers, there have been considerable developments in the mobile industry and new business models, and these have not been matched by the more established and tradition-bound fixed operators. New applications will increasingly need to be aimed at fixed-network competition, as the convergence of these two voice markets is inevitable.

As well as increasing competition, the rapid growth of the mobile industry has seen an increase in fraud and unfair business practices. Governments have seen the need to introduce further regulations to liberalise markets and increase competition, control termination rates and combat fraud.

In recent years, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of mobile messaging. The market has grown by default despite carriers having refused to properly market and package their SMS services for most of the 1990s. It is used as a cheaper alternative to mobile phone calls and has become trendy amongst young mobile users. As an extension of SMS, MMS provides longer text messages, the sending of music and pictures, and allows the sending of messages to multiple recipients. It has now passed the trial stage and is starting to show some growth, but not as spectacular as SMS. It will need lower prices and increased content to replace SMS and fend off alternative messaging systems. SMS has peaked and lower call charges will also put this market under pressure, and there are no indications that MMS and video based applications are going to compensate for this. The underlaying costs of the 2G networks doesn't allow for more attractive pricing.

2G based services will be predominantly voice driven, with a few enhanced services, and is unlikely to be widely accepted for data applications. The use of 2G will peak in 2006. 3G is seen as the answer to this, and while some companies have paid enormous sums of money to obtain spectrum, most of that money has now been written off allowing them to enter this market in a more economic viable way. However, the market has progressed since 3G was introduced in 1999, the word is now broadband and wireless broadband developments in domestic situations, especially WiMax is starting to look promising. Will 3G still be the correct progression?

This report discusses all of these matters, as well as the various delivery systems for 2G, the so-called 2 1/2G and 3G and describes the evolution, strengths and weaknesses of the various systems.

This annual report covers: GSM, CDMA, 3G, SMS, Edge, WAP, GPRS, Mobile data, m-commerce, Fixed-mobile substitution, WLL, telemetry, Bluetooth, Paging, PMR, Mobile satellite, GPS, location services. Report contains industry issues and strategies, government policies, spectrum developments.

Report also contains:

- Technology information

- Global overview

- Trends and Developments

- Business Strategies

- User statistics

- Revenues and forecasts

TODAY'S PRESS RELEASES
All Material Subject to Copyright. All logos, graphics and trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Home ProZone Subscribe To Newsletter 3G Forum