In as few as three years, wireless communications could overtake and outsell landline service in the global market, according to a survey by Arthur D. Little), one of the world's premier management and technology consulting firms.

The survey, conducted at the Power2001 conference in Anaheim, California, sought the opinions of the 500 conference attendees who are professionals in the fields of mobile computing, wireless electronic devices and battery technology.

Of the 100 attendees who participated in the survey, 86% felt that wireless would overtake and oversell landline service within the decade: 19% said the change would occur within 3 years, 38% said within 5 years and 29% within 10 years.

"This is a very strong statement - to think that by the year 2006 we could be a wireless world," said Rob Fricke, associate director in the ADL Communications, Information Technology, and Electronics Group, who analyzed the survey results. "It is clear that the overwhelming majority of the audience feels that there will be a significant shift toward global wireless connectivity in the very near future."

Other significant findings of the survey centered on issues of security within the wireless communications industry. Not surprising to ADL experts, attendees said the top security concern affecting wireless is virus protection, with privacy trailing not far behind.

"Many of the votes reflect people's recent experiences and the publicity to which they have been exposed," said Martyn Roetter, vice president and director of Arthur D. Little's Communications, Information Technology and Electronics Group. "In the wake of the recent crippling viruses such as NIMBA and Code Red and the increased vigilance surrounding personal privacy, these results are not a surprise. It can be assumed that in the near future we will see wireless users paying a premium for privacy."

The survey results also identified battery technology as a key component to enabling next generation technology. "We are seeing the battery industry continue to be pushed towards developing technology for the production of long-lasting, smaller batteries," said Dr. Christina Lampe-Onnerud, Director of Battery Technology at ADL's Technology and Innovation department. "This heightened interest in high-performing smaller batteries is also leading to the need for improved safety of battery components and manufacturing."

Additional survey findings include:

Reliability of service, not price, is the most significant barrier to wireless use
Concerns about the slow market environment and uncertainty about when business will improve are weighing heavily on all divisions of the wireless sector
Mobile computing and a wireless Internet are the next wireless communications applications in store for both the business and consumer markets
Almost 2/3 of respondents prefer using several specialized devices (cell, pager, PDA, etc) than using one solution
Battery power and global connectivity are the biggest challenges for success in 3G devices